Short-term holders have nearly stepped away from the market. Data from CryptoQuant shows that the realized cap UTXO age bands for one-week to one-month holders dropped to 3.91% — a level last seen in October 2023, when Bitcoin was changing hands near $27,000.
That quiet, behind-the-scenes signal is now drawing attention from analysts who say it points to something bigger: Bitcoin may be deeply undervalued.
Bitcoin: Sentiment Has Shifted Sharply Since December
A joint survey by Coinbase Institutional Research and Glassnode polled 91 global investors between March 16 and April 7. The group included 29 institutions and 62 non-institutional participants. What they found marks a clear break from where things stood just months ago.
About 82% of institutional respondents and 70% of non-institutional respondents now classify the current market as a late bear or markdown phase. Back in December, only around one-third held that view. The shift happened fast.
Valuation opinions were just as pointed. Roughly 75% of institutions and 61% of non-institutions said Bitcoin is undervalued at current prices. Very few flagged it as overpriced.
Bitcoin market sentiment survey. Source: Coinbase
Expectations around Bitcoin dominance also changed. The share of institutions expecting dominance to climb fell from 40% to 25%. A majority — about 54% — now expect it to hold near its current level of 58.1%, while 21% think it will slide.
Onchain Metrics Back The Undervaluation Argument
The survey findings don’t stand alone. Onchain data tells a similar story.
Analyst Woominkyu’s Bitcoin Combined Market Index, known as the BCMI, pulls together four separate metrics: MVRV, NUPL, SOPR, and investor sentiment.
MVRV compares market value against realized value. NUPL tracks net unrealized profit and loss across all holders. SOPR measures whether coins are being sold at a gain or a loss. Together, they give a broad picture of both price and behavior.
Source: CryptoQuant
The BCMI recently moved from 0.26 to 0.37 — a range that has historically lined up with periods of deep undervaluation. Its 90-day average is still trending lower, which signals that selling pressure hasn’t fully dried up.
BTC – Is It Approaching a Relatively Undervalued Zone?
“An interpretation based on historical data suggests that the market has entered a zone reasonably close to undervalued territory.” – By @DanCoinvestor pic.twitter.com/qiAkYP5M9l
— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) March 11, 2026
But Woominkyu said the data suggests downside is becoming limited relative to long-term upside, and that the market is entering what he called a “value-accumulation zone.”
Analyst Crypto Dan made a similar observation in March. Based on the UTXO age band drop, he said Bitcoin is approaching undervalued territory, though a final bottom has not been confirmed.
Historical Patterns Point Toward A Potential Cycle Low
Reports indicate that whenever the one-week to one-month UTXO age band has hit levels like this since 2021, Bitcoin has typically found a cycle low within three to six months. That pattern doesn’t guarantee a repeat, but it gives the current setup some historical weight.
Featured image from MetaAI, chart from TradingView